The U.S. economy will have to improve to get back to full employment by 2023 and then grow even faster to reach a level of economic growth that can lead to more stable employment levels, the Congressional Budget Office said Friday.
Economists have been forecasting a more stable recovery and jobs recovery, but the nonpartisan scorekeeper, in a new report, warned that recovery could take longer than expected.
The new analysis of the economic outlook released by the Congressional Research Service comes after President Donald Trump threatened to scrap the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act, or RAISE, in December if Congress did not approve the measure.
Trump threatened to cut funding to the Federal Reserve if Congress didn’t pass RAISE.
“We are going to get the RAISE Act passed,” Trump told reporters during a visit to the White House, according to a report in The Hill.
“We are not going to let this pass.
We are not gonna let this happen.”
The CBO also said that while there was some hope that RAISE could provide a path to full recovery, it was not a certainty.
“It does not seem likely that it will provide a broad and sustainable economic recovery in a time of fiscal stress,” the report said.
In the meantime, the CBO said, there is a risk that policymakers may not do enough to spur the economy.
The agency said it expects a modest rebound in the economy between now and 2023, which could be achieved through increased investment and the creation of jobs.
But even after the recovery ends, the agency said, the economy may still be on the wrong track.
The CBO said the federal government will spend $1.7 trillion in 2019 on programs designed to help people get back on their feet.
It also said Congress must spend at least $4 trillion on unemployment insurance, food stamps, unemployment insurance and other programs to help workers.
In total, the $1 trillion in government spending for unemployment benefits is expected to cost the federal budget $2.2 trillion, the report showed.
The economic recovery is expected by the CBO to be modest and there is not any sign of it slowing, especially in the second half of the year, according.
The report is the first by the agency since the start of the fiscal year.